Joe Windish in the Moderate Voice:
Stephen H. Miller comments on a Survey USA poll [pdf] finding that California voters now favor passage of Proposition 8 by a five-point margin, 47 percent to 42 percent:
One reason is the success of this anti-gay marriage ad showing San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom proclaiming same-sex marriage is here to stay “whether you like it or not.”
It’s not lost yet, but this is bad news, especially since the parallel Obama surge isn’t counteracting Prop 8’s growing support. It’s quite possible Obama will be the next president, but that all three anti-gay marriage state initiatives (California, Florida and Arizona) will pass. Given that LGBT activists have made the election of Obama their number 1 priority, with the lion’s share of the efforts aimed at getting out the vote, for Obama, and raising money, for Obama, a loss in California (especially, since it will roll back marriage equality) will be telling.
The swing (11 days prior found a five-point margin in favor of proposition 8 opponents) is attributed to young voters:
The only demographic group to significantly change their views during this period were younger voters — considered the hardest to poll and the most unpredictable voters — who now support the measure after previously opposing it…
“Polling on ballot measures in general is an inexact science, and polling on homosexuality in general is a tricky business. So, not too much should be made of the 5 points that separates ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ today,” concluded a summary of the results prepared by SurveyUSA.